https://originalxg.com/blog/ xG-based football match predictions with full transparency. We show you what the data says and prove our track record. en-GB Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://originalxg.com/blog/free-football-data-sources/ https://originalxg.com/blog/free-football-data-sources/ Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT Want to start analysing football with data? Here are the best free sources for xG, stats, odds, and everything else an aspiring football analyst needs. https://originalxg.com/blog/understanding-value-bets/ https://originalxg.com/blog/understanding-value-bets/ Tue, 24 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT What does it actually mean when a bet has 'value'? We break down implied probability, expected value, and how to identify when the data and the odds don't align. https://originalxg.com/blog/poisson-distribution-football/ https://originalxg.com/blog/poisson-distribution-football/ Tue, 03 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT The Poisson distribution is the mathematical backbone of most football score prediction models. Here's how it works, explained without the jargon. https://originalxg.com/blog/what-is-xg/ https://originalxg.com/blog/what-is-xg/ Thu, 15 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT Expected Goals (xG) is the most important stat in modern football analysis. Here's what it actually means, how it works, and why you should care about it.