What Is xG (Expected Goals)? A Simple Explanation
Expected Goals (xG) is the most important stat in modern football analysis. Here's what it actually means, how it works, and why you should care about it.
Read more →Our top picks are right 3 out of 4 times
Backtested across 11 seasons and 18,000 matches. Not gut feel. Not pundit guesswork. Data.
74.6%
Win rate on top picks
873
Top picks, every one scored
11
Seasons backtested
873 top picks across 2014/15–2024/25, each one checked against the actual result. Above 72% in nine of those eleven seasons. Season by season →
Our Live Record
Every prediction we've published since launch, updated automatically after every gameweek. No hiding, no cherry-picking.
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Top picks win rate since launch
Full breakdown →
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Match Outcome
W/D/L result correct
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Home Score
Home goals predicted correctly
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Away Score
Away goals predicted correctly
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Correct Score
Exact scoreline correct
We beat the BBC's pundit by 10 percentage points
Chris Sutton predicts every Premier League match for BBC Sport. Same league, same season, side by side.
OriginalXG
45.9%
results called correctly
Chris Sutton
36.3%
results called correctly
Premier League only, 2025/26 season, Chris Sutton's figures through gameweek 32 via MyFootballFacts. We've matched his league and his season so the comparison is like for like — our all-competition record is higher still. See the full breakdown →
This Week's Predictions
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How It Works
1
Collect xG Data
We track Expected Goals data for every shot in every match across the top 5 European leagues. This tells us how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality — not just how many they did score.
2
Build the Model
Rolling home and away xG averages feed into a probability model. This calculates the probability of every possible scoreline — from 0-0 to 5-5 and beyond.
3
Flag Top Picks
When our model is confident about a home win — and not so confident that it starts over-reaching — we flag it as a Top Pick. Those have come in 74.6% of the time across eleven seasons.
4
Track Everything
Every prediction is logged and checked against actual results. Our accuracy stats update automatically — no cherry-picking, no hiding bad weeks. Full transparency.
From the Blog
How the Poisson Distribution Predicts Football Scores
The Poisson distribution is the mathematical backbone of most football score prediction models. Here's how it works, explained without the jargon.
Read more →Understanding Value Bets: When the Data Disagrees With the Bookmakers
What does it actually mean when a bet has 'value'? We break down implied probability, expected value, and how to identify when the data and the odds don't align.
Read more →
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