Our top picks are right 3 out of 4 times

Backtested across 11 seasons, 18,316 matches, and verified against real bookmaker odds. Not gut feel. Not pundit guesswork. Data.

74% Win rate on top picks
+8% ROI vs real bookmaker odds
10/11 Profitable seasons
View This Week's Picks See Full Results

716 top picks across 2014/15–2024/25, verified against Bet365, Pinnacle, and others via football-data.co.uk. Full breakdown →

This Season's Accuracy

Updated automatically after every gameweek. No hiding, no cherry-picking.

— Top picks win rate this season
Full breakdown →
— Match Outcome W/D/L result correct
— Home Score Home goals predicted correctly
— Away Score Away goals predicted correctly
— Correct Score Exact scoreline correct

This Week's Predictions

Premier League La Liga Bundesliga Serie A Ligue 1

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How It Works

1

Collect xG Data

We track Expected Goals data for every shot in every match across the top 5 European leagues. This tells us how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality — not just how many they did score.

2

Build the Model

Rolling home and away xG averages feed into a probability model. This calculates the probability of every possible scoreline — from 0-0 to 5-5 and beyond.

3

Flag Top Picks

When our model is highly confident about a match outcome, we flag it as a Recommended Pick. These are the selections with a 74% historical win rate.

4

Track Everything

Every prediction is logged and checked against actual results. Our accuracy stats update automatically — no cherry-picking, no hiding bad weeks. Full transparency.

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