Premier League Predictions
xG-powered match predictions for the current gameweek.
Current Gameweek
How we predict Premier League matches
Every Premier League prediction on this page comes from the same expected-goals model we run across Europe's top five leagues. We measure the quality of chances each team creates and concedes in its recent home and away matches, work out how many goals that points to for this particular fixture, and turn it into a predicted scoreline. No form guides, no head-to-head records, no pundit opinion — just what the shots say.
Across eleven backtested seasons our top picks have come in at a 74.6% win rate — 873 of them, every one scored against the actual result. The record is public, misses included. See the full track record →
What the numbers say about Premier League right now
Premier League matches have been the tightest of the five leagues so far this season — just 36% ending in home wins and almost a third finishing level. That is exactly the kind of league where a model earns its keep: when the market leans on reputation and home advantage, the chances actually being created tell a different story.
So far this season Premier League games have averaged 2.82 goals from 3.27 expected goals, with 36% home wins and 32% draws across the 20 clubs and 380 fixtures of the campaign.
Get the full picture
Predicted scorelines are free on this page and always will be. Win probabilities for every match and our top picks are for subscribers — from £4.99 a month, with June and July free. See what's included →