Results & Accuracy
Every prediction tracked. Every result checked. No hiding.
Our Live Record — 2025/26 to 2026/27
Overview
League Breakdown
| League | Predictions | Match Outcome | Correct Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | — | — | — |
| La Liga | — | — | — |
| Bundesliga | — | — | — |
| Serie A | — | — | — |
| Ligue 1 | — | — | — |
Pundit Comparison
How our model stacks up against the pundits and the market.
| Predictor | Predictions | Result Accuracy | Exact Scores | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OriginalXG | — | — | — | xG statistical model |
| Chris Sutton (BBC) | 320 | 36.3% | 8.1% | BBC Sport |
These two rows don't cover the same matches, so read the comparison with that in mind. Chris Sutton's figures are Premier League only, 2025/26 through gameweek 32, via MyFootballFacts. Ours cover all five leagues across every season we've published, 2025/26 onward.
Every Prediction. Every Result.
Full transparency. Here's every prediction we've published alongside the actual result, across every season we've run. Filter by league.
Each match is scored four ways, because we predict four things: Result is whether we called the win, draw or loss; Home and Away are whether we got each side's goal tally exactly right; Exact means the full scoreline. Getting the result right while missing the scoreline is the common case, and it's the column that matters most.
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All-Time Backtest — 2014/15 to 2024/25
Season by Season — Top Picks
Our model replayed across eleven completed seasons and roughly 18,000 matches. A Top Pick is a predicted home win at 65–75% confidence — the range where the model has proved most reliable.
| Season | Top picks | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2014/15 | 75 | 74.7% |
| 2015/16 | 74 | 73.0% |
| 2016/17 | 102 | 76.5% |
| 2017/18 | 102 | 76.5% |
| 2018/19 | 66 | 80.3% |
| 2019/20 | 68 | 64.7% |
| 2020/21 | 51 | 72.5% |
| 2021/22 | 62 | 67.7% |
| 2022/23 | 91 | 79.1% |
| 2023/24 | 96 | 72.9% |
| 2024/25 | 86 | 77.9% |
| Total | 873 | 74.6% |
Above 72% in nine of the eleven seasons; 2019/20 and 2021/22 are shown in red because they fell short. xG data from Understat, historical fixtures cross-checked against football-data.co.uk. Every figure in this table is produced by scripts/multi-season-backfill.js in our codebase — run it and you get these numbers.
By League — 11-Season Totals
Where the model has done best. We don't restrict top picks to the stronger leagues — a rule picked because it flattered the backtest is a rule that stops working.
| League | Top picks | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 168 | 77.4% |
| La Liga | 211 | 76.8% |
| Premier League | 188 | 75.5% |
| Bundesliga | 166 | 72.9% |
| Ligue 1 | 140 | 68.6% |