Results & Accuracy

Every prediction tracked. Every result checked. No hiding.

Season Overview — 2025/26

— Top picks win rate this season

— Match Outcome W/D/L result correct

— Home Score Home goals predicted correctly

— Away Score Away goals predicted correctly

— Correct Score Exact scoreline correct

League	Predictions	Match Outcome	Correct Score
Premier League	—	—	—	—	—
La Liga	—	—	—	—	—
Bundesliga	—	—	—	—	—
Serie A	—	—	—	—	—
Ligue 1	—	—	—	—	—

How our model stacks up against the pundits and the market.

Predictor	Predictions	Result Accuracy	Exact Scores	Source
OriginalXG	—	—	—	xG statistical model
Chris Sutton (BBC)	320	36.3%	8.1%	BBC Sport
Random guessing	—	~33%	~3%	Baseline

Chris Sutton data via MyFootballFacts (Premier League only, through GW32). OriginalXG covers all 5 leagues.

Our model backtested against 18,316 real matches with real bookmaker odds from football-data.co.uk.

Season	Picks	Win Rate	ROI
2014/15	57	72%	+2.4%
2015/16	52	69%	+7.7%
2016/17	80	76%	+6.2%
2017/18	82	74%	+7.8%
2018/19	55	76%	+9.0%
2019/20	54	67%	-6.7%
2020/21	42	69%	+9.8%
2021/22	55	69%	+3.5%
2022/23	89	76%	+16.2%
2023/24	82	73%	+7.5%
2024/25	68	74%	+8.4%
Total	716	74%	+8.0%

Odds sourced from football-data.co.uk (Bet365, Pinnacle, best available pre-match closing odds). xG data from Understat. Every match is verifiable.

League	Picks	Win Rate	ROI
Premier League	160	75%	+9.7%
La Liga	166	74%	+5.2%
Bundesliga	132	73%	+5.4%
Serie A	133	77%	+10.2%
Ligue 1	125	67%	+2.1%

Full transparency. Here's every prediction we've made this season alongside the actual result. Filter by league.

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Date	League	Match	We Said	Actual	Result
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