What Is xG (Expected Goals)? A Simple Explanation
Expected Goals (xG) is the most important stat in modern football analysis. Here's what it actually means, how it works, and why you should care about it.
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xG explainers, data deep-dives, and analytical takes on the beautiful game.
Why xG Is a Better Predictor Than Form Tables
Form tables and recent results are the default way most fans judge teams. But xG data tells a far more accurate story about what's likely to happen next.
How the Poisson Distribution Predicts Football Scores
The Poisson distribution is the mathematical backbone of most football score prediction models. Here's how it works, explained without the jargon.
The Most Unlucky Teams in Premier League History (by xG)
Some Premier League teams created enough chances to challenge for Europe but finished mid-table. Here are the unluckiest sides in recent history, measured by xG underperformance.
Understanding Value Bets: When the Data Disagrees With the Bookmakers
What does it actually mean when a bet has 'value'? We break down implied probability, expected value, and how to identify when the data and the odds don't align.
Premier League Predictions 2026/27: What the Data Says
With the new season approaching, we look at what xG trends from recent campaigns tell us about which Premier League teams are heading up and which are heading down.
Which Premier League Teams Overperform Their xG?
Some teams consistently score more goals than their xG suggests they should. Is it skill, luck, or a bit of both? We dig into the data.
Set Pieces in the Premier League: Which Teams Create the Most Danger?
Set pieces have become a tactical battleground in the Premier League. We look at which teams generate the most xG from corners, free kicks, and throw-ins.
How European Football Affects Weekend Results: The Fatigue Factor
Do teams perform worse domestically after midweek Champions League games? The xG data has answers.
The Best Free Football Data Sources for Analysis
Want to start analysing football with data? Here are the best free sources for xG, stats, odds, and everything else an aspiring football analyst needs.
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