The Premier League Relegation Battle: What the xG Data Really Says

With ten games left in the 2025/26 Premier League season, the relegation battle is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic in recent memory. Six teams are separated by just five points at the bottom of the table, and the final day could yet be decisive.

But here's the thing about relegation fights: the table at this stage of the season doesn't always tell you who's actually going down. Clubs living beyond their means -- winning games despite creating fewer chances than their opponents -- tend to get found out in the run-in. And clubs that have been unlucky, losing games they dominated, tend to pick up the points they need.

Let's look at what the xG data says about each of the six teams in danger, and who should really be worried.

The Bottom Six

20th: Southampton (19 points)

Southampton's season has been every bit as grim as you'd expect from the table. They've scored the fewest goals in the league (22) and conceded the second most (54). Their xG per game of 0.97 is the lowest in the division, and their xG against of 1.64 is the second worst.

The problem is comprehensive. Southampton don't create enough, and they don't defend well enough. Their pressing numbers are the weakest in the league, and their chance quality -- measured by the average xG of each shot they take -- is also the lowest. They're not just creating fewer chances; they're creating worse ones.

The one glimmer of hope is their home form. At St Mary's, Southampton's xG per game rises to 1.21, which is poor but not catastrophic. Six of their remaining ten games are away from home. That's brutal scheduling for a side that desperately needs the comfort of their own ground.

xG-based survival probability: 8%. The data is emphatic. Southampton's underlying numbers are the worst in the league by a significant margin. Barring a miraculous run of form, they're heading down.

19th: Leicester City (22 points)

Leicester's return to the Premier League has been a disappointment. The squad that won the Championship last season has struggled to adapt to the step up in quality, and their manager has been unable to find a system that gets the best out of his players.

Their xG per game of 1.09 is poor, but their xG against of 1.51 is where the real damage is being done. Leicester concede too many high-quality chances, particularly from set pieces. Their set-piece xG against of 0.31 per game is the highest in the league -- they're being bullied at corners and free kicks.

The positive for Leicester is that their attacking output has improved since January. In their last eight games, their xG per game has risen to 1.34, suggesting the attacking patterns are starting to click. Whether that improvement has come in time is the question.

xG-based survival probability: 22%. Better underlying numbers than Southampton, but the set-piece vulnerability is a major concern. If they can't fix that, the defensive issues will keep costing them.

18th: Everton (23 points)

Everton. Of course it's Everton. The Toffees find themselves in a relegation battle for the third time in four seasons, and this year feels like the most precarious yet.

But here's where the data gets interesting. Everton's xG per game of 1.24 and xG against of 1.32 give them an xG difference of -0.08 per game. Over a season, that translates to roughly a -3 goal difference -- the profile of a team that finishes around 15th or 16th, not one sitting in 18th.

So why are they so low in the table? Two reasons. First, their finishing has been atrocious. Everton have underperformed their xG by 7.8 goals -- the worst finishing record in the league. They're creating reasonable chances and missing them. Second, their opponents have been incredibly clinical against them. The shots Everton concede are being converted at a rate well above the league average.

Both of these factors tend to regress over a 38-game season. If Everton's finishing improves even marginally, and their opponents stop scoring at an unsustainable rate, they should pick up enough points to survive.

xG-based survival probability: 58%. This might seem generous for a team sitting in the relegation zone, but the data strongly suggests Everton have been unlucky. They're a mid-table team trapped in a relegation position by variance. Expect them to climb out.

17th: Wolverhampton Wanderers (24 points)

Wolves are the team nobody is really talking about in the relegation battle, which is probably how they like it. Their season has been defined by defensive solidity -- they concede just 1.19 xG per game, which is actually a top-half number -- but they can't score.

Their xG per game of 1.07 is the second lowest in the league, and their attack has been painfully one-dimensional. Too much of their creative output depends on a single player, and when that player is marked out of the game, Wolves have no plan B.

The good news is that their remaining fixtures are relatively kind. They play five of the current bottom twelve in their final ten games, which should give them opportunities to pick up points against sides who will leave more space than the top-half teams Wolves have struggled against.

xG-based survival probability: 54%. Wolves' defensive platform gives them a fighting chance, but they need to find goals from somewhere. If they can score at even a league-average rate in their remaining games, they'll probably be fine. That's a big if.

16th: Crystal Palace (25 points)

Palace's season has been a tale of two halves. In the first 15 games, they were dreadful -- winless, rock bottom, and seemingly heading for certain relegation. Since then, they've been transformed, winning six of their last ten league games and climbing to the relative safety of 16th.

The turnaround coincides with the appointment of a new manager and a shift to a more attacking system. Palace's xG per game has gone from 0.89 in the first 15 games to 1.67 in the last ten. That's a dramatic improvement, and it suggests the current form is sustainable.

Their xG against has also improved, from 1.58 to 1.21. The defensive structure is tighter, the pressing is more coordinated, and the confidence that comes from winning games has made Palace a much harder team to play against.

xG-based survival probability: 72%. Palace's recent form is backed by genuine underlying improvement, not luck. If they maintain anything close to their current xG output, they'll finish comfortably clear of the drop zone.

15th: Ipswich Town (26 points)

Ipswich's second season back in the Premier League has been a proper fight, but they've shown enough quality to suggest they belong at this level. Their xG per game of 1.31 is unremarkable but respectable, and their defensive numbers (1.38 xG against per game) are in line with other lower-half clubs.

The concern is their away form. Ipswich have picked up just 6 of their 26 points on the road, and their away xG of 0.98 per game suggests they struggle to create chances when they can't feed off the energy of Portman Road. Five of their remaining ten games are away, so this vulnerability could be exposed.

That said, Ipswich's home record is strong: 20 points from 13 home games, with a positive xG difference at Portman Road. If they can maintain that and nick a couple of results on the road, they should be safe.

xG-based survival probability: 68%. Ipswich's numbers are solid enough that they should stay up, but the away form is a genuine risk factor.

Who's Going Down?

Running the remaining fixtures through our model -- accounting for each team's underlying xG data, home/away splits, fixture difficulty, and historical regression patterns -- here are the relegation probabilities:

The model is most confident about Southampton going down. Their underlying numbers are simply too poor to expect a late-season rescue. Leicester are the second most likely to drop, primarily because of their set-piece vulnerability and the difficulty of their remaining fixtures.

The battle for the third relegation spot is genuinely tight. Everton, Wolves, Crystal Palace, and Ipswich are all in the mix, but the model gives Wolves the highest probability of dropping primarily because of their inability to score goals. Everton's underlying numbers suggest they'll find form, and Palace's recent improvement looks genuine.

The Wildcard Factor

One thing models can't fully account for is the psychological dimension of a relegation battle. Teams that have been in this situation before -- Everton, for all their flaws, have fought their way out of trouble multiple times -- often find reserves of determination that their underlying numbers don't predict.

Conversely, teams new to this level of pressure can crumble. Leicester's young squad, many of whom are experiencing their first relegation battle, may find the intensity overwhelming as the stakes increase.

And then there's the fixture list. The final day of the season features several six-pointers between bottom-half sides, and the permutations could be extraordinary. One goal, one result, one decision could determine which three clubs spend next season in the Championship.

The Bottom Line

The relegation battle has plenty of twists left. But if you're looking for the data-driven answer to "who's going down?", it's this: Southampton are almost certainly doomed. Leicester are in serious trouble. And the third spot is a coin flip between Wolves, Everton, Ipswich, and Palace -- with Wolves and Ipswich fractionally more vulnerable than the others.

Ten games to go. Everything still to play for. This is what makes the Premier League the most compelling league in the world -- it's not just about who wins the title. The fight at the bottom is every bit as dramatic, and the xG data suggests it's going to go right down to the wire.