Value Bets
Where our xG model disagrees with the bookmakers. Updated each gameweek.
A value bet occurs when our Poisson model assigns a higher probability to an outcome than the bookmaker's odds imply. An edge of +5% or more is flagged. This is a statistical observation — not gambling advice.
| Match | League | Outcome | Model Prob. | Best Odds | Implied Prob. | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle vs Aston Villa | Premier League | Home Win | 54% | 2.40 | 42% | +12% |
| Dortmund vs Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | Draw | 28% | 5.00 | 20% | +8% |
| Napoli vs AC Milan | Serie A | Home Win | 48% | 2.50 | 40% | +8% |
| Marseille vs Lyon | Ligue 1 | Away Win | 35% | 3.80 | 26% | +9% |
⚠️ Value bets are statistical observations where our model disagrees with market pricing. This is mathematical analysis, not gambling advice. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org
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