Premier League · Saturday, 17 October 2026, 16:30
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa prediction
What our expected-goals model makes of this one.
The expected goals behind it
Our model gives Newcastle United 1.5 expected goals and Aston Villa 1.74. Those come from the quality of chances each side has been creating and conceding, adjusted for home advantage — not from the league table, recent scorelines or reputation. The predicted scoreline is the most likely whole-number result those two numbers produce.
Recent form
Newcastle United
- L 1-4 A v Coventry ✓
- W 2-1 H v Hull
- L 1-4 A v Leeds ✓
- D 2-2 H v Bournemouth
- W 2-0 A v Tottenham
Most recent first. A tick marks a match we predicted correctly.
Aston Villa
- D 2-2 H v Brentford
- W 3-2 A v Tottenham
- L 1-2 H v Nottingham Forest
- D 0-0 A v Hull
- L 0-1 H v Arsenal ✓
Most recent first. A tick marks a match we predicted correctly.
Win probabilities for this match
The predicted scoreline above is free and always will be. The win, draw and away percentages behind it are for subscribers, along with our Top Picks — predicted home wins at 65–75% confidence, which have come in 74.6% of the time across 873 picks and eleven backtested seasons.
See what's included — from £4.99/moHow we predict Premier League matches
Every Premier League fixture gets the same treatment. We track the expected goals each team creates and concedes, build a rolling picture of attack and defence, and combine the two sides to estimate how many goals each is likely to score. Those estimates feed a probability model that scores every plausible result from 0–0 upward, and the most likely one is what you see above.
The model has no knowledge of injuries, suspensions or team news — it reads shot quality and nothing else. That is a real limitation and we publish it rather than hide it: our record on match outcomes and exact scorelines, including the weeks it goes badly, is on our results page.
More Premier League: every fixture and our season accuracy. Or see this week across all five leagues and the matches we are most confident about.