Top Picks
The handful of matches our model is most confident about — across all five leagues, in one place.
What makes a Top Pick
A Top Pick is a predicted home win at 65–75% confidence. Over eleven backtested seasons those have come in 74.6% of the time — 873 of them, every one checked against the actual result.
Both halves of that rule come from where the model gets things wrong. At the same confidence, our home predictions land 73.6% of the time and our away predictions 59.5% — home advantage is partly made of things expected goals can't see. And above 75% the model starts over-reaching: those come in 67.8% of the time, not the 78% claimed. So our most certain-looking calls deliberately don't get the badge.
Everything else at 55% or above is flagged Worth a look, which has landed 62.2% of the time. Below that we say nothing. How the model works →
The record
Above 72% in nine of eleven seasons, never below 64.7%, and published season by season with the bad years in red. See every season →