Bundesliga · Saturday, 4 April 2026
Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig prediction
What our model said before kickoff, and what actually happened.
Recent form
Werder Bremen
- W 1-0 A v Wolfsburg
- L 0-2 H v Mainz 05
- W 4-1 A v Union Berlin
- W 2-0 H v FC Heidenheim ✓
- L 1-2 A v St. Pauli ✓
Most recent first. A tick marks a match we predicted correctly.
RasenBallsport Leipzig
- W 5-0 H v Hoffenheim ✓
- L 0-1 A v VfB Stuttgart ✓
- W 2-1 H v Augsburg ✓
- W 2-1 A v Hamburger SV ✓
- D 2-2 H v Borussia Dortmund
Most recent first. A tick marks a match we predicted correctly.
Win probabilities for this match
The predicted scoreline above is free and always will be. The win, draw and away percentages behind it are for subscribers, along with our Top Picks — predicted home wins at 65–75% confidence, which have come in 74.6% of the time across 873 picks and eleven backtested seasons.
See what's included — from £4.99/moHow we predict Bundesliga matches
Every Bundesliga fixture gets the same treatment. We track the expected goals each team creates and concedes, build a rolling picture of attack and defence, and combine the two sides to estimate how many goals each is likely to score. Those estimates feed a probability model that scores every plausible result from 0–0 upward, and the most likely one is what you see above.
The model has no knowledge of injuries, suspensions or team news — it reads shot quality and nothing else. That is a real limitation and we publish it rather than hide it: our record on match outcomes and exact scorelines, including the weeks it goes badly, is on our results page.
More Bundesliga: every fixture and our season accuracy. Or see this week across all five leagues and the matches we are most confident about.